Friday, December 12, 2008

Debate on AE

http://www.gmu.edu/departments/economics/bcaplan/whyaust.htm - a critique

http://www.gmu.edu/departments/economics/pboettke/pubs/articles/wrong.htm - supporter

more follows

Neo classical economics core building blocks

1. Utility functions
2. Indifference analysis
3. Pareto analysis ( Kaider-Hicks approach)
The point of investigation is how Austrian Economics critique this formulation and offers alternate explanation or alternate philisophical grounding.

Wednesday, December 10, 2008

Methodoly Debate

In his book on The Scope and Method of Political Economy, John Neville Keynes distinguishes among "a positive science . . . a body of systematized knowledge concerning what is; a normative or regulative science ... a body of systematized knowledge discussing criteria of what ought to be . . . ; an art ... a system of rules for the attainment of a given end" and later comments that "confusion between them is common and has been the source of many mischievous errors". I could not agree more. when I say this, i refer more to the debate inside subject's ( researcher) mind than the larger debate or methodological wars.

Positive economics is in principle independent of any particular ethical position or normative judgments. As Keynes says, it deals with "what is," not with "what ought to be." Its task is to provide a system of generalizations that can be used to make correct predictions about
the consequences of any change in circumstances. Its performance is to be judged by the precision, scope, and conformity with experience of the predictions it yields.
Formal logic and mathematics, which are both tautologies, are essential aids in checking the correctness of reasoning in this case. And the usefulness of the tautologies themselves ultimately depends on the acceptability of the substantive hypotheses that suggest the particular categories into which they organize the refractory empirical phenomena

More Later..

Tuesday, December 9, 2008

Austrian economics

This paradigm in economics/ philosophy has caught my imagination in a very positive sense. A feeling of having reached a philosophical shore. I look forward to visit Von Mises institute to interact with some of the worthies there. I would try to summarise the core philosophy of austrian economics here. later i would want to write on why I am attracted and why it would go along with my own sense of ' hindu way of living'.
1. Its emphasis on praxeology vis-a -vis phychology. Praxeology can be understood as the science of human action. The essential difference , it seems to me as of now, is in accepting the core motivation of human action. Human action is conceived as those which are done to reduce dissatisfactions one after the other. Actions are executed in the order of priority of the dissatisfactions. In this sense, praxeology negates the cardinal utility principle of psychology and the the derived mathematical economics. Need to understand more here.

2. Austrian economics support market economy in its true form. It even argues in favour of no tax on profits.

3. There is the presence of ' subjectivism' in its logic and in that sense it is a critique of the formal methods in economics. More on this later as I need more rigorous reading to undeestand the subtelities in the critique.

4. The subjectivism logic explains the difference in understanding ' value ' between the classical economics and Austrian economics.
More later....

Seduction and Sedulousness

My starting point here is in understanding the relationship between Seduction and Sedulousness. The etymological connections are unknown, atleast to me at this point in time. And i am guided by an intuitic sense of some close connection. I tried to deconstruct the feeling and here is the result.
Both seems to mean pursuit of a preferred or desired goal. while seduction requires presevereness and attention to detail, sedulousness mean preseverance.
Can seduction and sedulousness be paralleled to eros and logos? I feel so and to a good extent.

Tuesday, May 6, 2008

Lonlooker.com

There is a clear agency issue in the case of online communities who claim to be official ones. Whether they are ordained by the respective authoities ( of entities that these online versions claim to represent) or not, they would be acting as abassadors of the real entities. Thus the character of these online versions would be used to judge and understand the real entities ( a school, college, religion, organisation, business group etc). These online communities would be continuously emitting signals to the outerworld, which inadvertently would be part of the communication to the environment. Here is a case for active management of such signals, for it can affect with force and possibly with detrimental effect. Who would do this? The agency issue would mean the community owners or moderators may not be objective enough, as they themselves may be having private interests. These interests could be more members on board, more discussions on a particular topic etc and they would have instruments for manipulation of content and form, including power to delete what they dont want to be on the community.
What is the business opportunity here? What would be the third party ( or fourth party?, considering three already exist as in organization, owner of online community and the host of the community) value addition.
The lonlooker( Lets call it thus) would add tremendous value. It would be doing the role akin to that of a security head in a mall with multiple screens in front of him, watching closely with constant alert for possible mishaps. It would flag the organization for possible miscommunications, misdemeanours etc in the online communities. It could also flag the parent organization of new opportunities by gauging the new directions clubmembes ( the present ardent supporters of the parent entity) are taking.
Why the parent entity take up this role for itself? Why should it be outsourced? Well, here are the possible answers. Cost, Quality, mechanisation possibilities and hence early warning systems, possible solution generation and learning from others.
When it be more relevant . When online usage increases more, say another 5 years.

Thursday, December 6, 2007

Biases at Play

I would like comment in some detail of the gross biases that have crept into this article by Sashikumar (http://www.ibnlive.com/blogs/vkshashikumar/191/2647/report-no-evil.html). Let me list them one by one
1. Illusory correlation Bias
Look at Unsexy story No. 1 to see this . " Gujarat's success in agriculture is largely because of a splendid genetically modified Bt cotton output" . The story rests on the quoted premise about success of Gujarat's agriculture. Here I accuse of the same error that Sashi accuse on others... inability to look into details. How on earth can he conclude so simplistically. How on earth and heaven can he abstract agriculture in Gujarat to just cotton. Where is the statistics to support that. I accuse Sashi of not just being biased but of being consciously biased and motivated for the multitude of biases in play, the others i list down here.

2. Confirmation bias or Cognitive Dissonance

This bias is the most glaring of all . Let me quote two sentences from the blog to substantiate it
" if somebody cares to look at the statistics it will be clear that Gujarat's agriculture success is because of a lop-sided growth in cotton cultivation"
" Right to Information documents (these are official documents of the Gujarat government) clearly admit that 498 farmers committed suicide in Gujarat. And another 6,695 apparently died in "accidents".

These sentences uses ' statistics , to create two climaxes for the same story, the story of farmers in Gujarat. One says farmers were successful ( the comedy climax, but with wrong means of course) and the second says they were unsuccessful ( the trajedy one). Then Sashi plays the dubious act. He attributes success to wrong meand by Modi and then accuses Modi of Lying. Heads I win, Tails you lose.

3. fundamental attribution Bias

Look at the way Sashi attributes the floods to Sujalam Sufalam scheme and then implicitly to Modi. How naive and foolish one can be to cook up such a cause and effect story based only on what ' a farmer said in a film'. It does not stop there. He goes on to implicitly accuse faulty planning on Modi. This accusation would be no better that what villionous Mom-in-laws do when they accuse new brides for lower stock market returns for her brocker husband. Ignorance at best and not knowling about it at worst.

I have posted this response in Ibnlive.com site..and waiting for thier response